MU and Nebraska

Well, nobody said the prediction business was easy.

I could KC Star this and say well, technically, Missouri hasn't been offered a Big 10 spot yet. Nyah, nyah, nyah. So I might still end up being right about the expansion plans of the Big Ten.

But then I would be a weasel, and I'm just not a weasel.  I was wrong about whether the Big Ten would offer Missouri a spot.  They have.  And I now, despite a lackluster record predicting this stuff, boldly predict - Missouri will go. Nebraska may not, Notre Dame will not, but if Rutgers makes the jump too then the Big Ten will go for Pittsburgh or some other Big East school shortly after announcing the offer and acceptance of Missouri and Rutgers to join the Big Ten.

I don't know this - but don't you imagine that Jim Delany told those four schools that the first three to accept were in, and put a deadline on it for the leadership of those schools? I'd deny it had been offered of course, because NOBODY turns me down - but recognizing that the pressure is mine to apply right now, there would be an end of May deadline for Round 1 of expansion.  If I get all four, yippee, then I choose my 16th team during June, and I'd have plenty that would want to be that magical last school in the first and biggest and best of the new mega-conferences. If I get two or three of the schools and one is Notre Dame, then I go for 16 by going after two or three more from my second tier of candidates in Round 2.

If I get everybody but Notre Dame, there is no Round 2 for now, and I stand pat with 14 teams.

From Delany's point of view, he must imagine that Notre Dame probably won't go. Nebraska and Missouri might not go either - these are high stakes games, and if Texas decides they want to keep one or both of those schools in their little playpen, and push the Big 12 toward western dominance, Delany would realize that the Longhorns could probably make it happen with an aggressive television and revenue sharing plan.

So he might be left with only Rutgers, and then he's at a nice even twelve teams and has added the NY/NJ market to his television share. That is a no-lose situation, even though the big prizes turned him down. He would presumably look east for further expansion at some later time.

But I don't think Texas really cares to stop Missouri from leaving. So MU is probably gone, the Big Ten will get two or three of these four they've offered, and the college conference landscape is clearly on the move.